Purpose
Report Summaries
Appendices

• Meeting Agendas & Notes
• Full Summary Reports:
  History of Govt. Shutdowns
  Impacts of the OBBA Act of 2025
  How Can Dems Claim the Narrative
  Affordable Care Act, Medicaid, and a Shutdown
  Not a Shutdown, A Halt to Trump's Thievery
  Government Shutdown — Things You Should Know

Closing Statement From Our Chair

WHAT, WHY, AND WHO IS THE FOCUS GROUP?

Clallam County Chair, Ellen Menshew, requested volunteers to serve on a focus group to “research, discuss and report back a recommendation to either support a Continuing Resolution or endorse a Federal budget shutdown.”
If Congress does not pass a continuing resolution on funding by Sept. 30th, the government will shut down on Oct. 1st.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS FOR USING THIS REPORT

• Urge Clallam County Democrats to share this report with all Democratic Local Party Offices (LPOs) across Washington State
• Send to our state and federal representatives
• Send to the Democratic National Committee
• Create a press release and send it to local and other media
• Encourage use of Congressional switchboard to alert every member of Congress of your support for or against a shutdown. Call (202)224-3121. This switchboard is answered by a live person who will transfer your call to the office of any member of US Congress. You can then leave your message with a staff member or on an answering machine. Share this information with others to encourage more calls from the voice of the American people!

1. History of Government Shutdowns - by Christy Wright

In the first 180 years there were no government shutdowns. Funding lapses were handled differently. Since 1976 there have been 21 shutdowns. Durations of shutdowns from 1 to 34 days. Seven Presidents have lived with shutdowns: Ford, GW Bush and Obama 1, Clinton 2, Trump 3, Carter 5, Reagan 8. One Trump shutdown was for 34 days ( the longest) over border wall funding, and he relented.
In 1980 and 1981, Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti issued legal opinion that concluded that during a funding gap, most agencies had to shut down, furloughing non-essential employees and ceasing non-essential services. Social Security payments continue to be sent, and some essential services are maintained. Federal employees that work without pay are reimbursed after the shutdown is ended.

2. Reasons why Democrats must use every tool they have to rescind drastic healthcare coverage cuts instituted in the One Big Beautiful Bill - by Liz Bumgarner

Medicare: Projected deficits resulting from the OBBA together with the extensive tax cut for the wealthy can force an automatic $45 billion in Medicare cuts for fiscal year 2026, with further cuts of up to $500 billion projected by 2034. These cuts will result in fewer healthcare providers accepting Medicare due to reduced payment rates, which may limit access to care, particularly in rural and underserved areas. The bill also blocks a 2023 rule designed to streamline enrollment for low-income individuals who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid and rescinds subsidies for low-income seniors and people with disabilities from automatically receiving help with Medicare costs. It modified the Inflation Reduction Act's drug price negotiation program, broadening the exemption for orphan drugs used to treat rare diseases which will limit Medicare's ability to negotiate lower prices for expensive medications.

Medicaid and CHIP: the CBO estimates that the bill’s Medicaid and CHIP (Children’s Health Insurance Program) provisions would cut spending on them by $863.4 billion over the next ten years. Includes provisions intended to seriously undermine Medicaid expansion. The OBBBA introduces new work requirements for many Medicaid recipients aged 19 to 64, mandating at least 80 hours of work, volunteer, or school per month. People who do not meet these requirements risk losing their coverage. States will now have to check eligibility and death records quarterly during the year. The states will also need to pick up more of the expenses for these programs.

SNAP (Formerly known as Food Stamps): In an average month in 2024 SNAP helped an average of 41 million low-income people in the US afford a nutritionally adequate diet. Nearly 62 % of SNAP participants are in families with children and nearly 37% are families with older adults or disabled people. Under the bill the federal government will contribute only 25% to the administrative costs of the program instead of the past 50%. Future SNAP benefit levels are frozen at the 2021 level preventing any increase in food benefits despite inflation or other problems.

3. How can Dems claim the narrative? – by Betsy Robins

It is important for the public to understand why there is a shutdown before the Republicans spin their blame game message. The message needs to be positive, a unified healthcare message as the ONLY reason for a shutdown. Our suggestion to explain why the shutdown has occurred is “Emergency Response to the assault on Healthcare” It is critically important to frame the message as necessary leverage to salvage all aspects of American healthcare from the brutal Republican attack.
​
We encourage you to share our unified stand with upper contacts and ask you to call the DC Hotline, 202-224-3121, to let Congress know your opinion on the attack on an already subpar healthcare system!

4. Affordable Care Act, Medicaid and a “Shutdown” - by Lisa Dekker

The Affordable Care Act subsidies and Medicaid Coverage are worth defending. The subsidies provided through the Affordable Health Care Act and Medicaid coverage for millions of Americans were eliminated by the Republicans’ so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” that was passed with no Democratic votes in July. As enacted, 22 million Americans who benefited from the health insurance subsidies in the Affordable Care Act will see their out-of-pocket expenses increase by an average of 75% as soon as January. And approximately 10 million Americans including low income, the disabled, and children who currently depend on Medicaid will lose their healthcare. A controversial aspect of the law, enforcing work reporting requirements for Medicaid goes into effect on January 1, 2027, right after the 2026 midterm elections.

5. Not a government shutdown”, a Vote to Halt Trump Thievery! – by Tim Wheeler

The Trump Administration and Medicare Administrator, Dr. Mehmet Oz, are promoting a bill titled “Wasteful and Inappropriate Service Reduction Act” or “WISeR.” This pending legislation if enacted, will require every person enrolled in Traditional Medicare (TM) to get “preclearance” for medical procedures now provided without prior authorization required.

“Preclearance” is one way privatized Medicare Advantage reaps billions in profits for insurance corporations. The estimated overcharges and fraudulent claims by these profiteers are between $80 billion and $140 billion annually. WISeR would open TM to the same profiteering.

Washington State is one of the states named to “pilot” WISeR. The American Medical Association has condemned WISeR. A bloc of 40 progressive House members, led by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) urged Oz not to launch WISeR. Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA) and 18 other House members warned Oz that WISeR will “likely limit beneficiaries’ access to care, increase the burden on our already overburdened health care work force and create perverse incentives to put profit over patients.”

Democrats, and any Republicans who want to join them, should vote to block WISeR and killing the Republican Continuing Resolution will also eliminate WISeR. This is a vote to halt Trump’s war on Traditional Medicare! It is a vote to PROTECT the health and lives of the people! Send a message of thanks to Rep. DelBene and her 18 colleagues for taking a stand against WISeR. Urge Senators Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray to protect our healthcare.


Our Team –
Members of the focus group were Liz Bumgarner, Lisa Dekker, Catherine Harper, Tom Harper, Betsy Robins, Douglas Taylor, Tim Wheeler, Christy Wright. Moderator: Norma Turner.

1. Agenda for Focus group on should Dems endorse or oppose a government shutdown. Tuesday Sept 16, 2025 @ Dems HQ - 10:00 a.m

10:00 Call to order
          Adoption or changes to proposed agenda
10:05 Self introductions - 1 minute time limit
10:20 Appoint note taker
10:25. Brief presentation by Ellen Menshew
10:30 Review focus group outline listed on bottom of agenda
10:45 List of Pros and Cons of government shutdowns
          Each person will list one item- process will continue until no more additions are listed
11:05 Questions to ponder: Each person will have 2 minutes to answer the following
          1. Do you believe a shutdown will help or create a negative backlash to Dems?
          2. Will a shutdown empower Trump or limit him?
          3. Is accepting a CR better than a shutdown?
11:25 What items need more research and who will do the research and report back to the group?
          Suggested additional readings for entire committee to review
11: 45 Additional comments
11:55 Set next meeting date with list of items to discuss
12:00 Adjourn
Goal: to collect diverse opinions, insights, and reactions, and prepare a report to inform decision-making, policy implementation, and engagement within our local party. Deadline 9/25/25
Topic and Objectives - Congressional vote on funding the government Sept 30 deadline
Is shutdown a tactic that should be used to gain major concessions from the majority?

Focus Group Guidelines

Ground rules – Encourage open-ended discussion, encourage balanced participation

Data Collection Methods - Record Zoom meetings. Take detailed notes. Collect reference articles, links, copies, anything that can be included for distribution to members.

Analysis and Reporting - Preserve recordings and notes. Summarize findings in a report – highlight key takeaways: recurring themes, diverse opinions, critical messaging points with actionable recommendations. Identify stakeholders (other than members) you feel the report would benefit or who to ally with. Share the findings with members and others.

Follow-Up Actions - Schedule follow-up meeting after the deadline to share final thoughts (1st week in Oct.?). Submit Recommendations for future Focus Groups.

Synopsis of first meeting of Dems focus group re: endorse a shutdown or a CR?

Members attending in person: Douglas Taylor, Tim Wheeler, Liz Bumgarner, Christy Wheeler, Betsy Robins, Catherine and Tom Harper, via zoom: Lisa Dekker. Moderator: Norma Turner. Guest: Ellen Menshew

Approved the agenda

Modified goals for the group proposed by Ellen Menshew - changed date to submit report 9/20/25

Voted (7 Yes 2 No) to request the Clallam Dems to send out the recent Ezra Klein and Robert Reichs op ed on the federal shutdown.

Ellen Menshew explained why the focus group was established and proposed governance.

Each person introduced themselves (limited to 1 minute each)

Listed pros and cons of a government shutdown. List created by asking each person to list one item, it took three rounds of input from members to complete the list.

Pros:

• Strengthen Dems in negotiations. Force R’s to table for discussion
• Right thing to do
• Message to voters – Dems are united. Dems are fighters
• Only tool left in our toolbox. Poll that majority of Americans are in favor.
• Strong messaging will highlight issue(s) we support: HEALTHCARE, ICE
• Timeline – 1 year to next presidential election cycle
• Need off ramp – plan what our endgame will be……CR
• May push Trump to the limit – expose his failure.
• Don’t give in! 
• ACA subsidies would be restored

Cons:

• Shutdown will backfire on Dems
• Preference is CR – considering healthcare
• Impact on essential workers - $$
• Dems don’t have any cards
• Funding the government has already been legislated
• Negative impact on economy
• Fear that Dem leaders won’t stand up Rebrand message: NOT a shutdown – stop the bulldozer
• Government is BROKEN – important statement
• Maga’s will lie regardless, and ACTION is needed

Each person was given 2 minutes to answer the following three questions. Vote tally is listed

1. Do you believe a shutdown will help or create a negative backlash to dems?
   5 will help. 2 will create a backlash and 1 uncertain
2. Will a shutdown empower or limit Trump? 5 will empower, 1 limit and 1 uncertain
3. Is accepting a Continuing resolution better than a shutdown. 5 No and 3 Yes

The following members volunteered to write a report for the next meeting

1. Christy W. - history of shutdowns and what services are closed vs open
2. Lisa D. - impact of current policy on ACA and impact of shutdown on ACA economic value of health care
3. Liz B. - impacts on health care in broad sense (food programs, etc.)
4. Tim W. - impact on 6 states rules regarding Medicare
5. Betsy - exploring ideas, how to develop a positive message if a shutdown occurs

2. Agenda - Friday - Sept 19 at Dems HQ - 1 p.m.

Members present: In person: Tim Wheeler, Betsy Robins, Catherine Harper, Tom Harper, Liz Bumgarner, Lisa Dekker, Tim Wheeler, via Zoom: Douglas Taylor.  Absent: Christy Wright.  Moderator; Norma Turner.

1:00  Call to order  Review and approve meeting notes submitted by Norma T
1:05  Reports by members (5-minute limit)   
         Christy - History of shutdowns
         Liz - OBBBA impacts on health issues   
        Tim - 6 states required to preapprove care for Medicare   
        Betsy - Ideas for messaging   
        Lisa - ACA impacts
1:30 Discussion of reports
1:55 Develop consensus- support shutdown or support CR
2:15 Creating positive message around the consensus  2:30 Review/ modify our proposed report - to be delivered tomorrow
3:00 Adjourn 

CCD Government Shutdown Focus Group Concise Positive Messages 

• Emergency response to end assault on your healthcare.
• Emergency response to save healthcare.
• Stand up for healthcare.
• Protect healthcare.
• Save healthcare, vote no on Continuing Resolution.
• Healthcare is right; we won’t back down.  

In the first 180 years there were no government shutdowns. Funding lapses were handled differently.   

The Antideficiency Act: This 1894 law prohibits federal agencies from spending money not specifically authorized by Congress.  For decades, this law was interpreted leniently, and agencies often continued operating during funding gaps, expecting Congress to quickly resolve the issue.

Civiletti's legal opinions: In 1980 and 1981, Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti issued new legal opinions that reinterpreted the Antideficiency Act. He concluded that during a funding gap, most agencies had to shut down, furloughing non-essential employees and ceasing non-essential services. 

Shutdowns are a relatively modern occurrence, with all 21 happening since 1976. Durations of shutdowns from 1 to 34 days

Gerald Ford (1976): 1 shutdown.  Sept. 30- Oct.: 11 Ten days.     
                               Result: He vetoed the budget and congress overruled him 
Jimmy Carter (1977–1979): 5 shutdowns.
Ronald Reagan (1981–1987): 8 shutdowns.
George H. W. Bush (1990): 1 shutdown.
Bill Clinton (1995–1996): 2 shutdowns. In 1995-1996 a 21-day shutdown.    Clinton was unhappy with the Republican led congress ’s cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, education, and the environment. He then vetoed some of their spending bills. They reached a compromise much closer to what Clinton wanted.
Barack Obama (2013): 1 shutdown. Oct.1- Oct. 17: 16 days                 
                                   Result: The ACA had already been passed by Congress and became law in March of 2010. The 2013 shutdown was triggered by congressional Republicans attempting to delay or defund the ACA. The ACA was implemented Oct. 1, 2013, and was unaffected by the shutdown.
Donald Trump (2018-2019) 3 shutdowns. One was 34 days:  Trump wanted 5 billion for the border wall and said he would keep things closed until he got it. He relented.  

Conclusion: Historically those who shut down the government seldom get what they want.   Today may be unique. Many believe that we have never faced a basic threat to our democracy before so there is nothing to lose.  

Some of the key provisions of OBBBA include: 

• Medicaid. creates new administrative requirements and conditions on eligibility (including work requirements) for patients seeking to enroll in or maintain Medicaid coverage and restricts states ’ability to use provider taxes to finance their Medicaid programs.
• Access to health insurance coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA): it imposes verification requirements for patients receiving premium tax credits, including pre-enrollment verification requirements that will effectively end automatic re-enrollment for these patients.  does not address the scheduled expiration of enhanced tax credits at the end of 2025.
• Federal support of medical student loans.  In part, removes the ability for medical students to receive Federal Direct Stafford loans and Federal Direct PLUS Loans (medical students will still access Federal Direct Unsubsidized Stafford loans), caps the amount that can be borrowed for school, and limits new federal student loan borrowers to only two repayment options. 

From Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF): The enhanced premium tax credits for ACA enrollees are set to expire later this year the CBO estimates show that the number of uninsured people will increase by more than 14 million in 2034. That estimate does not account for the effects of the Trump administration’s ACA Marketplace Integrity and Affordability rule finalized earlier this year, so the overall change in the number of uninsured people could be even larger.

Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)

• Moratorium on implementing regulations that would streamline eligibility and enrollment for Medicaid, CHIP, and the Medicare Savings Program (MSP). These sections impose a 10-year moratorium on two regulations adopted by the Biden Administration intended to streamline enrollment in Medicaid, CHIP, and the MSP.  As a result, fewer individuals are expected to enroll in or maintain enrollment in Medicaid, CHIP, and the MSP. It begins July 4, 2025, and ends on September 30, 2034.      

Requires states to conduct quarterly checks of the Death Master File (DMF) to ensure deceased individuals are not enrolled in the program. 

Currently, providers are screened upon enrollment. The DMF average rate of listing alive people as dead is 5,500 names per month.  Requires states to redetermine the eligibility of individuals enrolled in Medicaid through the ACA expansion pathway once every six months (annually under current law). It takes effect January 1, 2027. 

Narrows the definition of which lawful immigrants may be covered by Medicaid or CHIP. Restricts the definition of qualified immigrants for purposes of eligibility to lawful permanent residents, certain Cuban and Haitian immigrants, citizens of the Freely Associated States (COFA migrants) lawfully residing in the U.S. and lawfully residing children and pregnant adults in states that cover them under the Immigrant CHIP Act.  Federal payment for Medicaid coverage of immigrants who are not lawfully in the country has long been prohibited (except for treatment of emergency medical conditions). Takes effect on October 1, 2026. 

Creates new federal work requirement, referred to in the law as a “community engagement requirement.”  Requires Medicaid recipients to spend at least 80 hours a month working, volunteering, or in school to maintain their coverage, will have to verify every month that they have met this requirement. It will create a burden on both the state systems managing coverage and the individual recipient.

Most Americans on Medicaid are in geographic areas where there are limited jobs, limited schooling and volunteer opportunities. Others who may be incapacitated and can’t fulfill the requirement may lose their health coverage. Some may not have access to computers or internet services to complete the form reliably each month. 

From KFF: “In the reconciliation law, Medicaid work requirements account for more than half of CBO’s estimated 2034 increase in the number of people without insurance the variations of states rules showing a range of enrollment effects varying by plus or minus 25% from a midpoint estimate 

What CHIP covers 
CHIP benefits are different in each state. But all states provide comprehensive coverage, including:

• Routine check-up / Immunizations / Doctor visits / Prescriptions / Dental and vision care / Inpatient and outpatient hospital care / Laboratory and X-ray services / Emergency services / Behavioral health services 

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) formerly was called Food Stamps. 

Changes made by OBBBA limits Secretary of Agriculture’s discretion in determining “thrifty food plan” (the basis of SNAP benefit amounts). Freezes the current thrifty food plan until October 1, 2027. Requires future updates to the thrifty food plan be cost neutral.  The (CBO) estimates this will reduce federal SNAP spending by $37 billion over 10 years. Takes effect on July 4, 2025. 

Changes exceptions to SNAP work requirements, by applying the requirements to individuals ages 18-65 (previously18-55); limiting exception for parents or other caretakers of dependent children to children under 14 years old; and ends the exception for former foster children under 24 years of age. 

Narrows the Secretary of Agriculture’s discretion to waive requirements —waivers only permitted in areas with unemployment over 10 percent or, in “noncontiguous States” (Hawaii and Alaska), in areas where unemployment is at least 1.5 times the national unemployment rate.  CBO estimates changes will reduce federal spending by $68.6 billion over 10 years. Takes effect July 4, 2025. 

Limits automatic qualification for standard utility allowance to households receiving of Low- Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) benefits that include an elderly or disabled member.  Limits the ability of households, without elderly or disabled, to exclude energy assistance from household income or treat assistance payments as expenses for purposes of SNAP eligibility. CBO estimates this will reduce federal spending by $5.94 billion over 10 years. Takes effect July 4, 2025.  

Requires states to pay a state share of SNAP costs if their payment error rate is at least 6%, depending on the state’s payment error rate (higher error rates pay a higher state share). CBO estimates this will reduce federal spending by $40 billion over 10 years. 

Reduces the federal share of SNAP administrative costs from 50% to 25%, effective October 1, 2026. CBO estimates this will reduce federal spending by $24.66 billion over 10 years. 

Limits SNAP eligibility for immigrants to those lawfully present and are either admitted for permanent residence (ex. green card), granted status as a Cuban and/or Haitian entrant, or are here via a Compact of Free Association per 8 U.S.C.  (e.g., Marshall Islands). Household that includes an immigrant that is not eligible for SNAP may still receive SNAP benefits, but the excluded individual’s income is still considered for purposes of determining eligibility. CBO estimates this will reduce federal spending by $1.9 billion over 10 years. Effective immediately, July 4, 2025. 

Eliminates funding for National Education and Obesity Prevention Grant Program (2025 - $538 million).  CBO estimates this will reduce federal spending by $5.47 billion over 10 years.

Social Security Administration, is responsible for Medicare eligibility and enrollment functions, has not yet updated its guidance or procedures. Natalie Kean, Director of Federal Health Advocacy at Justice in Aging said, “We’re deeply concerned that the absence of clear guidance and procedures will harm immigrant communities, creating coverage gaps and unexpected financial liability when people seek health care, The absence of clear guidance amplifies the cruelty of stripping away Medicare from people who trusted the government’s promise of Medicare.”

Meredith Owen Edwards, Senior Director of Policy and Advocacy at Refugee Council USA. Said “For 45 years, refugees have been eligible for Medicare—a critical lifeline for elderly refugees, those with disabilities, and medically complex cases who have experienced significant harm and protracted violence.”   “H.R. 1 broke the federal government’s decades-long promise to lawfully present immigrants, that if they worked and paid their Medicare taxes, they would have health coverage when they retired or became disabled,” 

Medicare changes.   H.R.1 excludes an estimated 100,000 lawfully present immigrants from Medicare, regardless of how long they have worked and paid taxes with the promise of health coverage upon retirement or disability. Key provisions of the law took effect on July 4, 2025H.R. 1 restricts Medicare eligibility solely to U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents (green card holders), and certain narrow groups of other lawfully present immigrants.  The law strips Medicare eligibility from all other lawfully present immigrants, including Individuals granted Temporary Protected Status / Refugees and asylum recipients /Trafficking and domestic violence survivors / Individuals granted humanitarian parole. 

Blocks Improvements to the Medicare Savings Program. (MSP).  Enacts a nine-year ban on implementing improvements to MSPs which help lower-income Medicare beneficiaries pay for premiums and out-of-pocket costs. The CBO estimates this will save over $66 billion over 10 years.  Savings come from preventing eligible beneficiaries accessing programs which make Medicare more affordable. 

Limiting Medicare’s Ability to Negotiate Drug Prices.   The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act gave Medicare the power to negotiate prices for certain high-cost medications, the first negotiated prices in 2026. The OBBB carves out “orphan drugs” (medications for rare diseases) from this negotiation process, limiting Medicare’s ability to control costs for some of the most expensive medications. 

Use a clear, high stakes issue- don’t FRACTURE THE MESSAGE!
Erica Seifert of Navigator Research says, “FRAME the fight” - SIMPLE MESSAGE, “Rollback Medicaid cuts/extend ACA tax credits”.   Hold FIRM
Use the single message as the ONLY reason for the shutdown.       
Framing the issue as a choice: The party is framing the standoff as a decision between protecting Americans' health coverage and accepting a "partisan Republican spending bill" that would harm it. 

Talking points for restoring HC for Americans: Highlight the stakes for everyday people. Messaging emphasizes that a failure to act will cause millions to lose coverage and others to face premium hikes. This makes the consequences personal and urgent for voters, particularly those with low to middle incomes facing premium hikes, and access to care.  Funding healthcare SAVES jobs. 

Republicans are THE CAUSE of the obstruction-We want a SETTLEMENT not a SHUTDOWN! Rs refuse to meet. Data for Progress says a firm stand appeals to Dems and swing voters. Use polling data to inform messaging: Democrats are using internal polling to show that voters would blame Republicans for a government shutdown and there is broad support for extending ACA tax credits. This data helps reinforce their messaging strategy. 
A UNITED message SHIFTS (and SHAMES) the unfunded government blame to the Rs.
There is a constant FIREHOSE of information that is used to distract from the message.
We won’t SURRENDER. STOP the BULLDOZER medical cuts. Fund HEALTH. 

Highlight the human cost of this POLITICAL standoff. Message areas of assistance to those suffering. Focusing on vulnerable populations: Democrats are highlighting the potential harm to children, seniors, veterans, and people with disabilities, who would be affected by proposed cuts to programs like Medicaid.
A Continuing Resolution (CR) buys time, but the Rs record of negotiation does not assure progress during the CR period. The CR proposal is not reasonable. 

The new Democratic proposal, 9/18/25, links funding the government through Oct. 31 to two of the party’s other priorities: health care assistance and placing limits on President Trump’s ability to unilaterally roll back funds previously approved by Congress.  Best spokespeople are strong Dems with large support bases. The most effective messengers are those who can leverage their platforms to simplify a complex legislative standoff into a compelling story of their opponents' alleged intransigence. Blaming Republican intransigence: Congressional Democrats, including leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, are arguing that a shutdown would be the result of Republicans refusing to negotiate on healthcare. This places the political responsibility for a shutdown on their opponents. 

A UNIFIED message to liberal media and social media. Use various angles on same message. 

• Emphasizing a strong negotiating stance: Some Democrats argue that taking a firm position on healthcare is an effective strategy. Polling by Data for Progress found that a message of Democrats "fighting harder" and taking a hard stance on healthcare is persuasive among registered and persuadable voters. 

POLITICFACT SEPT 17 - Louis Jacobsen   Katherine Clark, Dem Minority Whip posted on Sept 12, and Chris Murphy (D – CT) posted on X the following:   
“Republicans are spiking health insurance premiums by 75% for everyday Americans” if they don’t extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. And AHIP, an insurance industry group, also cited the 75% figure when they urged passage of subsidy extensions. 

QUICK SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: 

• If the Republican-controlled Congress does not extend enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies before they expire at the end of this year, ACA enrollees would have to pay more for health insurance.
• Analysis of federal data by health care think tank KFF found that the average out-of-pocket cost increase would be 79%, with state-by-state average increases ranging from 49% to 195%.
  This cost increase would come from a combination of insurance premium increases and the disappearance of subsidies, rather than from "spiking health insurance premiums" alone. Most purchasers obtain subsidies, as long as they meet the income guidelines. 

In 2021, Joe Biden signed legislation that made ACA subsidies more generous, by reducing the maximum amount purchasers would have to pay for premiums and enabling households whose incomes were higher than 400% of the federal poverty level to receive subsidies. Previously, the subsidies were capped at 400% of the poverty limit for a household, which in 2024 was $60,240. Congress renewed these enhanced subsidies in 2022. They are now poised to expire. The number of people receiving them increased from 12 million in 2020 to 21.4 million in 2024, according to KFF’s analysis of federal data. About 75% of those receiving subsidies in 2024 were households with incomes at 250% or less of the federal poverty level, or about $37,650. 

Where did the 75% figure originate 
Using 2024 federal data, KFF calculated the average annual premiums for enrollees who received enhanced subsidies.  Of the total premium the government paid $5,727 of the recipient paid $888 and the enhanced subsidy provision covered the final portion, $705. If the enhanced subsidy disappeared and the enrollee had to pay both $888 and $705 for a total $1,593. That’s about 79% more than the same person was paying with the enhanced subsidies in place — close to the 75% figure that Clark and Murphy cited. The Congressional Budget Office projected that a failure to extend the subsidies would increase the uninsured population by 2.2 million in the first year and by an average of 3.8 million each year from 2026 to 2034. The 79% figure is an average increase; the figure varies by state.  Ranges from Hawaii 49% to Wyoming 195%. 

The vast majority — about 22 million — of the total 24 million people with a health plan via the ACA marketplace received a premium tax credit in 2025, according to ​KFF. “For those 22 million people, it would be a huge premium shock on New Year’s Day if these tax credits expire,” said Larry Levitt, the group’s executive vice president for health policy. 
ACA insurance plans are generally for those who don’t have access to a workplace plan, such as students, younger retirees, contractors, the self-employed and unemployed. About 7.9% of the U.S. population was uninsured in 2023, the lowest share in history, compared to 9.2% in 2019, he said, citing federal data. More than 4 million Americans would become uninsured over the next decade if the enhanced credits lapse, according to an estimate by the CBO earlier this year. 

JULY 25 REPUBLICANS ARE SPLIT ON EXTENDING OBAMACARE TAX BREAKS
The CBO projects that about 5 million Americans will lose their insurance by 2034.
Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, said “a lot of people” are discussing how to address the ACA subsidies. But the party is torn, he told NBC News. “There’s some interest to do something. There’s some interest to do nothing. So, it’s threading that needle.”

MEDICAID.GOV 5/25: 78,095,734 people were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in data for May 2025.
70,828,934 people were enrolled in Medicaid. 7,266,800 people were enrolled in CHIP.

UPDATE on DEMS’ POSITION as of 9/19/25
THE HILL 9/19: Senate Democrats on Wednesday evening unveiled an ambitious proposal to fund the government past Sept. 30 that would restore the nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid made by President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which could cause scores of rural and smaller hospitals around the country to close. GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY McCOURT SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY: The list of losers under the House bill is too long to present in its entirety in this blog. Let’s start with the 7.8 million Americans who CBO projects will become uninsured as a result of the bill’s Medicaid provisions. The majority of these--4.8million—are estimated to be low-income adults without dependents who do not meet the work reporting requirements that the bill imposes upon expansion states. Analysis by multiple trusted researchers indicates that most who will lose coverage are working but will not be able to navigate the red tape. Another 2.2 million are projected to become uninsured because of other Medicaid provisions in the bill, including the requirement that states reverify the eligibility of expansion adults every 6 months. Those expansion adults who manage not to lose their Medicaid coverage altogether due to work reporting requirements and 6-month redeterminations will also face copayments on most services of up to $35 per visit—inviting the resurgence of medical debt that Medicaid expansion was intended to help them avoid. Although Medicaid expansion adults are the top targets of the OBBBA, many low-income populations are at risk for loss of Medicaid coverage under the bill. These include children and families; women, especially those of reproductive age living in small towns and rural areas; people with disabilities; low-income seniors on Medicare; veterans.

SUMMARY: What Democrats will defend: Affordable Care Act subsidies and Medicaid for millions

The Republicans’ so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” that passed in July was a direct assault on the health care of millions of Americans: 22 million Americans who benefited from the health insurance subsidies in the Affordable Care Act will see their premiums increase by an average of 75%. And approximately 10 million Americans, including low income, the disabled, and children who currently depend on Medicaid will lose their healthcare. Democrats are saying NO to this drastic and cruel budget, asking Republicans to protect health care with a new bill. If they refuse, Democrats will have no choice but to trigger an “Emergency Response” - a shutdown - on behalf millions of Americans.

Background and sources
AHIP, (formerly America's Health Insurance Plans) is an American political advocacy and trade association (lobby) of health insurance companies cited 75% as denoting how much premiums would spike for those currently using the ACA subsidies. This is the same percentage that Congressional Democrats are projecting as the increase in premiums. About 7.9% of the U.S. population was uninsured in 2023, (after the ACA was passed), the lowest share in history, compared to 9.2% in 2019, he said, citing federal data.
KFF, "Inflation Reduction Act Health Insurance Subsidies: What is Their Impact and What
Would Happen if They Expire?" July 26, 2025
KFF, "Who Might Lose Eligibility for Affordable Care Act Marketplace Subsidies if Enhanced Tax
Credits Are Not Extended?" March 3, 2025
KFF, "Marketplace Plan Selections with Financial Assistance," accessed Sept. 17, 2025
KFF, "How Much More Would People Pay in Premiums if the ACA’s Enhanced Premium Tax
Credits Expire?" accessed Sept. 17, 2025
Drew Altman, "Explaining the Muddle on ACA Tax Credits," Sept. 3, 2025
Congressional Budget Office, "Re: The Effects of Not Extending the Expanded Premium Tax
Credits for the Number of Uninsured People and the Growth in Premiums," Dec. 5, 2025
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, "Health Insurance Marketplaces 2024 Open
Enrollment Report," accessed Sept. 17, 2025
Paragon Health Institute, "Policy Changes Needed to Reduce Massive Improper Affordable Care
Act Subsidy Expenditures," July 2, 2025
Politico, "Senate Republicans ready Obamacare rescue," Sept. 15, 2025
NBC News, "House Republicans release bill to keep government funded through Nov. 21," Sept.
16, 2025
May 2025 Medicaid & CHIP Enrollment Data Highlights ://www.medicaid.gov/
medicaid/program-information/medicaid-and-chip-enrollment-data/report-highlights
Sept. 2025 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-split-extendingobamacare-
tax-breaks-higher-costs-loom-rcna220601
Democrats want government funding stopgap to reverse nearly $1 trillion in
Medicaid cuts. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5509187-senatedemocrats-propose-funding
ACA cliff may mean ‘huge premium shock’ for 22 million people in 2026, expert
says https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/10/aca-enhanced-subsidies-expireobamacare-
premiums-rise.html.
One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Winners and Losers in the MedicaidProvisions
https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2025/06/26/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-winners-and-losers-in-the-
medicaid-provisions

The Trump Administration and Medicare Administrator, Dr. Mehmet Oz, are now promoting a bill titled Wasteful and Inappropriate Service Reduction Act” or “WISeR.” This pending legislation if enacted, will require every person enrolled in Traditional Medicare to get “preclearance” for medical procedures now provided free with no prior authorization required.

“Preclearance” is one way privatized Medicare Advantage reaps billions in profits for UnitedHealthcare and other insurance corporations. The estimated overcharges and fraudulent claims by these Wall Street profiteers is between $80 billion and $140 billion annually. WISeR would open Traditional Medicare to the same profiteering.

They have selected six states including Washington State to conduct a “pilot” of WISeR. Even the conservative American Medical Association has condemned WISeR. Last month, a bloc of 40 progressive House members led by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) sent a letter to Oz urging the Trump Administration not to launch WISeR. Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA) and 18 other House members wrote to OZ warning that WISeR will “likely limit beneficiaries’ access to care, increase the burden on our already overburdened health care work force and create perverse incentives to put profit over patients.”

​The Democrats---and any Republicans who want to join them----should vote to block WISeR and all other Trump reactionary attacks on our health care. If they succeed in killing the Continuing Resolution through a Senate filibuster, WISeR will die with it.
​
This is not a vote to “shutdown” the Federal Government. It is a vote to halt Trump’s war on Traditional Medicare! It is a vote to PROTECT the health and lives of the people! We should send a message of thanks to Rep. DelBene and her 18 colleagues for taking a stand against WISeR. We should write to Sens. Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray urging them to support the filibuster and block the Trump-MAGA war on our health care.

What is a government shutdown?

Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign, budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2025 that make up the discretionary spending budget. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.

What services are affected in a shutdown and how?

Each federal agency develops its own shutdown plan, following guidance released in previous shutdowns and coordinated by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The plan identifies which government activities may not continue until appropriations are restored, requiring furloughs and the halting of many agency activities. Essential services – many of which are related to public safety – continue to operate, with payments covering any obligations incurred only when appropriations are enacted.

In prior shutdowns, border protection, in-hospital medical care, air traffic control law enforcement, and power grid maintenance have been among the services classified as essential, while some legislative and judicial staff have also been largely protected. Mandatory spending is not subject to annual appropriations, such as for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, also continues. Other examples of activities that continue are those funded by permanent user fees that are not subject to appropriations, such as immigration services funded by visa fees. Certain programs that are funded through advanced appropriations, such as those within the Veterans Health Administration, have been minimally affected during recent shutdowns. Although many programs are exempt, the public is still likely to feel the impact of a shutdown in several ways. For example, in a full shutdown: Social Security and Medicare: Checks are sent out but benefit verification as well as card issuance would cease. While unlikely to happen again, during the 1995-1996 shutdown, more than 10,000 Medicare applicants were temporarily turned away every day of the shutdown. Environmental and Food Inspection: During the 2013 shutdown, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) halted inspections for 1,200 sites that included hazardous waste, drinking water, and chemical facilities, and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) delayed almost 900 inspections. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, the FDA restored some food inspections a few weeks into the funding lapse for products that were considered high-risk.

• National Parks: In 2013, the National Park Service (NPS) turned away millions of visitors to more than 400 parks, national monuments, and other sites. NPS estimated that the shutdown led to more than $500 million in lost visitor spending nationwide. Many parks remained open during the 2018-2019 shutdown, though no visitor services were provided, and damage and trash build-up were reported at many sites.
• Air Travel: During the 2018-2019 shutdown, air travel was strained as a result of air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents working without pay. Travelers faced longer lines as some TSA agents did not report to work and security checkpoints were closed, while the absence of ten air traffic controllers temporarily stopped travel at LaGuardia Airport and caused delays at several major airports.
• Health and Human Services: The National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be prevented from admitting new patients or processing grant applications. In 2013, states were forced to front the money for formula grant programs such as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF, sometimes described as “cash welfare”).
• Internal Revenue Service (IRS): As a result of funds provided in the Inflation Reduction Act, essential IRS operations would continue and roughly one-third of its nearly 90,000 employees would be exempt from furlough. In 2013, a backlog of 1.2 million income and Social Security number verification requests delayed mortgage and other loan approvals, and billions of dollars of tax refunds were also delayed. At least 26,000 furloughed IRS employees were recalled to work during the 2018-2019 shutdown in preparation for tax season, but 14,000 did not show up to work without pay.
• Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP): Though funding for the SNAP program is mandatory, the ability to send out “food stamp” benefits could be affected by a shutdown, since continuing resolutions have generally only authorized the Agriculture Department (USDA) to send out benefits for 30 days after a shutdown begins. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, the USDA paid February SNAP benefits early on January 20, just before the 30-day window ended, but it would have been unable to pay March benefits had the shutdown continued. In addition, during any shutdown, stores are not able to renew their Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) card licenses, so those whose licenses expire would not be able to accept SNAP benefits during a shutdown. Is the government preparing for a shutdown? Agencies issue contingency plans to outline the process of entering into and existing during a shutdown, and OMB often maintains a list of each agency’s guidance. Most agencies most recently updated their guidance in September 2023, as indicated by the previous administration ’s archived list.

How would federal employees be affected?

A full shutdown would be more extensive than the partial shutdown that started in December 2018, when Congress had enacted five of the 12 appropriations bills. A full shutdown would likely be similar to recent ones in 2013 and early 2018, when approximately 850,000 out of 2.1 million non-postal federal employees were furloughed. In 2013, most of the 350,000 civilian employees at the Defense Department who had been furloughed were summoned back to work within a week. Furloughed employees are not allowed to work and do not receive paychecks but are guaranteed back pay due to legislation passed in January 2019. Federal contractors have historically not received back pay.

At the beginning of the partial 2018-2019 shutdown, an estimated 380,000 employees were furloughed, a smaller number than usual since large federal employers such as the Veterans Affairs and Defense Departments were already funded. Another 420,000 employees reported to work but did not receive pay until the shutdown ended. As the 2018-2019 shutdown continued, departments and agencies such as the IRS and State Department recalled an increasing number of employees.

How and why do mandatory programs continue during a shutdown?

Whereas discretionary spending must be appropriated every year, mandatory spending is authorized either for multi-year periods or permanently. Thus, mandatory spending generally continues during a shutdown. However, some services associated with mandatory programs may be diminished if there is a discretionary component to their funding. For instance, during the 1996 shutdowns and the 2013 shutdown, Social Security checks continued to go out, but staff who handled new enrollments and other services, such as changing addresses or handling requests for new Social Security cards, were initially furloughed in 1996. In 2013, certain activities were discontinued, including verifying benefits and providing new and replacement cards, but the processing of benefit applications or address changes continued. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, USDA had to rely on a special authority included in the previous CR to allow it to continue issuing SNAP benefits.

How many times has the government shut down?

Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018 though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down, but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, ten funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected. There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996, when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels, causing the government to shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013, when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019 – technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted – centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.

Does a government shutdown save money?

While estimates vary widely, evidence suggests that shutdowns tend to cost money for several reasons. Putting contingency plans in place has a real cost. In addition, many user fees and other charges are not collected during a shutdown, and federal contractors sometimes include premiums in their bids to account for uncertainty in being paid. While many federal employees are forced to be idle during a shutdown, they have historically received, and are now guaranteed back pay, negating much of those potential savings. OMB estimates of the 2013 government shutdown found that $2.5 billion in pay and benefits were paid to furloughed employees for hours not worked during the shutdown, as well as roughly $10 million in penalty interest payments and lost fee collections. Shutdowns also carry a cost to the economy. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the 2018-2019 shutdown reduced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by a total of $11 billion, including $3 billion that will never be recovered. On top of that effect, CBO notes that longer shutdowns negatively affect private-sector investment and hiring decisions as businesses cannot obtain federal permits and certifications or access federal loans. A 2019 Senate report found that the three government shutdowns in 2013, 2018, and 2019 wasted nearly $4 billion of taxpayer dollars.

How can Congress avoid a shutdown?

There are essentially two ways to avoid a government shutdown – by passing appropriations or a continuing resolution (see question on “What is a Continuing Resolution?”). Theoretically, the House and Senate Appropriations committees pass 12 different appropriations bills that are broken up into subcommittees by subject area and based on funding levels allocated in a budget resolution. Often, these bills are combined into larger “omnibus” or “minibus” legislation.

To avoid a shutdown, Congress would need to pass the 12 appropriations bills through both chambers and get them signed by the President by the end of the day on September 30, 2025 This could be done by enacting each bill individually or packaging them together through an omnibus or minibus. Otherwise, Congress would need to pass a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open at FY 2024 funding levels.

What is a Continuing Resolution? (CR)

A continuing resolution temporarily funds the government in the absence of full appropriations bills, often by continuing funding levels from the prior year. Traditionally, CRs have been used to give lawmakers a short period of time to complete their work on remaining appropriations bills while keeping the government open. CRs sometimes apply to only certain appropriations, but they can also be used to fund all discretionary functions for as long as the entire year. CRs differ from normal appropriations bills in that they often “continue” funding allocations from previous bills at the prior year’s level, or through a formula based on the prior year’s level. Even when overall funding levels have differed, lawmakers have often simply scaled up all accounts by a percent change in spending, rather than making individual decisions on spending accounts. However, CRs often do include certain “anomalies,” where specific items are increased or decreased to work around some problems that would occur from continuing the previous year’s policies, or “policy riders,” where certain funding restrictions are specified to dictate policy. Colloquially, a “clean CR” does not contain policy riders or politically motivated changes to funding levels.

How often does Congress pass CRs?

Congress frequently passes CRs when lawmakers are unable to agree on appropriations before a deadline. Occasionally, multiple CRs are necessary to fund the government for an entire fiscal year. Congress also sometimes relies on CRs during presidential transition years. In FY 2001, a series of intense Congressional negotiations leading up to the 2000 election led to a series of ten one-day CRs. In total, Congress funded the first three months of that fiscal year with 21 CRs. Congress funded all but one appropriations bill (defense) with a CR in 2011 and has routinely used CRs for one-quarter to one-third of fiscal year funding for the past decade. The most recent year when all full-year appropriations bills passed before the fiscal year began and no CRs were necessary was FY 1997. Congress has never enacted a full-year CR for the defense appropriations bill. The current fiscal year, FY 2025, has been funded by two separate CRs – one from October 1, 2024, through December 20, 2024, and another from December 21, 2024, through March 14, 2025.

What are the disadvantages of using CRs?

Continuing resolutions have several negative implications for the budget’s overall efficiency. CRs usually continue funding at the past year’s level without any regard for changing policy needs or the value of each program within an agency. Using a CR wastes hundreds of hours of careful consideration and program evaluation incorporated into each agency’s budget submission. For instance, the President’s annual budget proposes a list of eliminations and reductions of programs that are duplicative or ineffective; a CR will continue to fund these unwanted programs. Finally, the use of CRs disrupts activities within agencies, makes it difficult to plan or start future projects, and costs staff time to revise work plans every time the budget changes.

How is Congress addressing funding?

Congress has not enacted any appropriations bills for FY 2025. Last Congress, the Senate Appropriations Committee advanced 11 bills, but none were brought to the floor for a vote. The House passed five of its 12 appropriations bills in the 118th Congress, but none became law. The two chambers had a number of differences related to overall funding levels, allocation of spending, and policy riders. The House and Senate must agree on and pass the same versions of the bills before they are presented to the President for his signature.

How does a shutdown differ from a default?

In a shutdown, the federal government temporarily stops paying employees and contractors who perform government services, whereas in a default the list of parties not paid is much broader. In a default, the government exceeds the statutory debt limit and cannot pay some of its creditors (or other obligations). Without enough money to pay its bills, all the federal government’s payments are at risk — including all government spending, mandatory payments, interest on our debts, and payments to U.S. bondholders. While a government shutdown would be disruptive, a government default could be disastrous.

On September 7th, I read an Op-Ed in the NY Times that discussed the idea of Democrats in Congress standing up to their Republican counterparts on the upcoming vote to fund the government. “Standing up” could ultimately result in a government shutdown. What would that mean for our country? What is the best path forward? What is in the best interest of the people and our country?

I put out a call for members to apply to participate in a Government Shutdown Focus Group. Their task: to research, inform, recommend a consensus, and prepare a report on the topic. With the congressional vote looming, they were given a timeline of 10 days. After last Friday’s vote in the House and Senate, the group decided to move their timeline up to one week. ONE WEEK!

This report is the result of their immeasurable talent and commitment. This group of amazing Democrats (most of whom didn’t know one another before they met early last week) prepared an insightful, informative, and comprehensive report. It outlines the Republicans deep spending cuts are part of a broader strategy to shrink government and weaken social programs, and it highlights the Democrats urgency under pressure to defend critical investments, especially health care for all Americans.

​As proud as I am to be a Democrat, I’m immensely grateful and humbled to be a Clallam County Democrat working alongside this team. I’m confident there will be more focus groups in our future. We are THE PARTY OF THE PEOPLE!

The rolling train wreck that is the current administration continues to play havoc with the federal workforce, nationally, and here in Clallam County. In February and March, thousands of workers were sent an email called ‘the Fork in the Road’ where they were asked to make an almost immediate decision to resign or be fired. Some 3% of workers left their jobs and then many were fired (citing false performance issues), only to be re-hired when the administration realized that some workers were critical to certain operations. The buyouts and firings trimmed about 100,000 workers. 

Also, probationary workers across agencies were fired and some were brought back only to be put on administrative leave. (The administration’s efforts to fire tens of thousands of probationary federal workers have been stymied in court, at least temporarily.) This seesaw continued through April as the administration claimed it would save money by decreasing the workforce. But, according to the New York Times, an expert on the federal workforce estimates that the speed and chaos of the cuts to the bureaucracy will cost taxpayers $135 billion this fiscal year.

The tragedy is that it didn’t have to be this way. Federal law and previous government shutdowns have a legal playbook for reducing the federal workforce. One such playbook is a reduction-in-force (RIF) plan. The RIF process provides procedures for laying off federal employees due to organizational changes, as opposed to individual performance or conduct issues. Generally, these stem from a reduction in a budget passed by Congress which forces agencies to look for ways to live within their assigned budget. Sometimes, this means reducing the workforce. 

An agency will draw up a revised organization based on the priority of agency needs. The agency will first attempt to reduce the workforce through buyouts and early retirement incentives. This helps keep their newer employees on board for future experience and staffing. In essence, those new employees are the agency’s future leaders. If that does not draw down the workforce sufficiently, then a RIF becomes the last recourse to reduce the workforce. 

To properly conduct a RIF, an agency determines the organizational units and geographical areas affected (the competitive area), and the positions subject to the RIF, (the competitive level).

The agency then develops a list of potentially affected employees based on type of employment, veteran preference, length of service, and work performance that determines the order in which they are released.

Employees who are released have certain rights to be reassigned to other positions in the agency, depending on whether there is a union contract or the employee’s past experience in the agency. Reassigning employees may displace employees in lower-tenure groups, even if their position was not subject to the initial RIF. This is called “bumping” and feels like a pinball ricocheting through the machine – watching it bing! bing! bing! around. For employees who are ‘bumped’ to another job, another place, or totally out of the agency it means moves, upheaving families and spouses who may have jobs, and stress. For the government it is anything but a cost savings, as the government pays for moves or experiences a loss of expertise. It is chaotic and it takes money and time away from carrying out the agency’s mission.
 
If all the employees are based in one building or within commuting distance, a RIF can be traumatic but easily managed. But it becomes extremely complicated if employees are spread out over long distances in the competitive unit such as the Forest Service, the Park Service, a District, etc. This is the case in Clallam County, where an employee facing a RIF may have to consider relocating to another office elsewhere. With 12-plus government agencies represented in Clallam County, the impact will be felt.
 
The slash-and-burn approach has cost taxpayers millions of dollars and led to many court filings. As we have seen locally at Olympic National Park, employees were let go, rehired, put on administrative leave, or left hanging as the courts and the administration fight it out. To bring it down locally, two different neighbors of mine are facing day-by-day whether they will lose their jobs. For some who have specialty jobs, finding another job locally is almost impossible.
 
In a recent court order, Senior U.S. District Judge Susan Illston said, “The President has the authority to seek changes to executive branch agencies, but he must do so in lawful ways and, in the case of large-scale reorganizations, with the cooperation of the legislative branch.” Instead of following these normal processes defined by OPM (Office of Personnel Management) to conduct downsizing, the administration, through DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), chose the same lightning-speed, blunt-force methods that Elon Musk used to drastically cut Twitter’s workforce. Yet the seesaw, pinball chaos of workforce reductions will continue as unions, employees, and even the public fight the illegality of the administration’s methods. 

Update, May 26, 2025: Federal employees get a reprieve but their future remains in limbo
In two key court actions within the space of a day, a federal district judge has extended a general ban on further reductions in force and reorganizations by federal agencies, while the U.S. Supreme Court has again sided with the White House over the firing of a Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) board member. If fired or let go, employees can appeal to the MSPB; however, the current board lacks a quorum to hear appeals.

A new order from Judge Susan Illston of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California has indefinitely extended an earlier two-week pause against carrying out an executive order and other Trump administration policies to cut federal employment in general and to abolish or virtually abolish various individual agencies.

TAKE ACTION: If you are facing a RIF or some other process that will cause you to lose your government position, contact your Senators and Members of Congress and let them know what is happening to you and how it impacts your life. If a friend or family is facing a RIF, give them all the support you can – they may be under great stress and trauma. Encourage them to contact Congress, get union support, or get career or personal counseling. 

For more detail about how reductions in force work, read this article by Sam Berger and Jacob Leibenluft, “Trump Administration’s Mass Layoffs of Federal Workers Are Illegal” (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, May 2, 2025.)

Sources:   

“What Elon Musk Didn’t Budget For: Firing Workers Costs Money, Too” by Elizabeth Williamson (New York Times, April 24, 2025)

“Judge blocks Trump administration federal employees layoffs,” by Hassan Ali Kanu (Politico, May 9, 2025; updated May 10, 2025)
​
Ban on RIFs and Reorgs Extended; Supreme Court Again Sides with White House on MSPB Firing (by FEDweek Staff, FEDweek.com, May 26, 2025, 7:33 a.m.)

Two months after President Trump took office, the chaos in the federal government continues on a daily basis. The shock of the takeovers of a number of federal agencies and the en masse firing of federal workers across the nation has been felt down to the local level. 

Now, several weeks into these events, federal workers still feel whipsawed by the changing federal workplace. In talking to some Olympic National Park and Olympic National Forest employees, the changes come – or don’t come – daily. Universally, these employees, like many other federal employees, dread the Friday-night decisions and the Monday-morning emails. One employee I talked to sat on the edge of her seat, jiggling her foot as she nervously watched her phone for the email that would tell her if she was being called back to work. It had been promised for 4 p.m. It didn’t come. 

Employees that were fired have been told they will be brought back. Then they are told they will be on administrative leave until the agency can go through a reduction in force, in which case they would probably still lose their jobs. The firing, re-hiring, administrative leave, and reduction in force are not free processes. These personnel actions take an incredible amount of time to process and money not currently in the agencies’ budget. This only adds to the bewilderment of how this accomplishes reduction in waste in the government. That many of the firings are questionable as to legality, it also goes against the goal of reduction of fraud.

As the rules change daily, these employees wait to hear whether they will be re-hired. With no sure deadline, they don’t know how long they can pay their bills. Some have had to ask their landlords or companies for ‘grace’ on paying bills, but without any assurance that they will be rehired or get unemployment. 

Adding insult to injury for the fired employees, the government claimed employees were fired for poor performance when, in fact, most of them have excellent performance records. What the general public may not realize is that:

1. Being fired often means those employees cannot receive unemployment benefits. 
2. Federal employees do not pay into the state unemployment fund. If a laid-off federal employee receives unemployment benefits, the State bills the federal government for the cost. In the current unpredictable political environment, there is concern that the federal government will not follow through in reimbursing the state. 

Another group of employees – those that have not been fired but were working remotely – were ordered to return to their ‘station’ for work. As in the case at the Forest Service’s Quilcene office, with very short notice employees had to return to brick-and-mortar offices with not enough desks, ports, chairs, and other equipment to accommodate the influx of 22 workers. These employees, as with others, had to rearrange their lives for childcare or their spouses’ work needs. 

Yet a third group of employees is being impacted in an insidiously quiet way. These are the workers who have a disability requiring some accommodation to do their job. One employee, who wished to remain anonymous, has had a visual impairment since childhood and is legally blind. She has been successful as a front desk receptionist, a support services supervisor, and a budget officer. She was able to do her job with special computer applications and equipment that allowed her to ‘see’ to do her computer work. Recently, her vision has gotten worse, but the government has stopped the program that would allow her to have the upgrades and equipment to continue to do her job. Her duties have been reduced or changed and she isn’t sure what her future holds. 

Finally, there are the federal employees who still have jobs but are cautioned not to talk about the administration, not to talk to the public, and to ensure the public is served no matter how short staffed they are. (Employees are actually being told by administration not to say that sites are closed or hours are limited due to staffing shortages.) The administration does not want NPS and USFS services ‘impacted,’ which is a pretty tall order when these same agencies are being hollowed out. The Forest Service has been told they have three goals – staff the front desks, do not close any recreation sites, and sell timber (even as the regulations that need to be followed are being circumvented).

The federal employees who shared their experiences are often in their first- or second trimester of a 30-year service, have a passion for their work, and are, by the very nature of federal service, rule followers. Working for the federal government was a workplace of rules, regulations, understood pay rates, and sometimes head-banging bureaucracy but it was steady, reliable, and service-oriented. These employees understood that they served the country and the people of the United States. These agencies were little families within our local communities. 

In the weeks to come, it is likely that we will see more erosion of the federal ‘presence’ in our local area. It may hit harder when the grants, information and services we need are gone or require hours of driving to get to an office. But we need to recognize that in all of that chaos, there is the human toll on a workforce that served us, who are neighbors and friends and participants in every aspect of our local communities. As one NPS worker said, ‘it is a loss we will never get back.’

Update: All Olympic NPS employees who were fired have been reinstated as of March 21 and will not be put on administrative leave. This was the result of an order by Judge William Alsup who had heard about Department of Interior employees being brought back and then put on administrative leave. He stated that putting them on administrative leave would not restore the services they provided. Therefore, agencies were not allowed to do that.

​Congress may yet reduce budgets so that agencies will have to do RIFs (reductions in force). People may yet lose their jobs. But in the world of the federal government, that is, at least, a process that provides an ‘orderly retreat.’  One thing is for sure, public pressure is having an effect in forcing the established processes to be followed.